Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s October 4 presidential election, unsettling climate campaigners who fear a shift in environmental policy. The result sends both candidates to a runoff scheduled for October 25, so Bolsonaro has not yet won the presidency.
Bolsonaro received 47.03% of the vote, or 56.1 million votes, while Lula received 45.16%, or 53.8 million, according to figures reported by The Guardian. The first-round result gives Bolsonaro the lead, but the race remains undecided.
Environmental record in the campaign
The concern among campaigners reflects the stakes they see in the candidates’ differing records and statements on the Amazon. Under Lula’s administration, deforestation in the rainforest fell by almost 50%, The Guardian reported. That achievement did not translate into obvious electoral gains for Lula or several candidates who supported forest protection.
Bolsonaro has not set out detailed Amazon policies, according to an Associated Press report published before the election. His campaign described him as a conservation advocate, while Bolsonaro said in an August interview that he did not believe climate change was real.
Environmental-policy experts cited by the Associated Press warned that weakening protections or changing what kinds of land clearing are legally permitted could increase deforestation, even if a government pledged to enforce rules against illegal clearing. Those concerns describe possible consequences, not confirmed plans or outcomes under a future Bolsonaro administration.
Congress adds to concerns
The presidential contest is unfolding alongside changes in Congress. In a report published after the election, the Associated Press said Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party became the largest party in both chambers. Indigenous and environmental organizations warned that far-right gains could threaten protections.
The Associated Press also reported Bolsonaro’s support for allowing economic activity, including mining, on Indigenous lands. The legal and policy picture remains uncertain, and the report’s account of concerns does not establish what rules would change or whether such activity would be permitted under a future government.
For climate campaigners, Bolsonaro’s first-round lead is therefore a warning about the possibility of weaker protections, rather than evidence that policy has already changed. The October 25 runoff will determine who becomes president; the environmental effects of any future administration remain unresolved.